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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe consequences" during the summer if Russia's president continued hindering truce discussions, Trump finally imposed major restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially impacted Putin's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

This plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the president. But, Putin's invasion is not simply about occupying a damaged swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Concessions

Although freezing in position the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel the nation to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would make renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan imposes no similar limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal states: "Any radical belief system and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has violated equivalent accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust Russia now?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on western security guarantees. While the plan promises a "strong joint defense action" should the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details vary from vague to alarming. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to act militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not