Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.